In a recent interview with Gabriel Rinaldi for Süddeutsche Zeitung, Marina Henke shares her view on NATO’s future, highlighting the transactional nature of US leadership under Donald Trump.
What lies ahead for NATO following Donald Trump’s inauguration on 21 January? Marina Henke, Director of the Centre for International Security and Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School, offers her perspective:
“Donald Trump is a deal-maker. To maintain US NATO security guarantees for Germany and Europe, we must prove that Europe is still valuable to the US and worth defending”.
Henke outlines two potential US demands: a significant increase in European defence spending—potentially rising well above the 2% of GDP target, with suggestions of up to 5%—and a closer alignment of European foreign policy with American interests.
Germany, Henke notes, will face particular pressure to reassess its stance on China. She predicts the new US administration will insist that Germany take a clear position in support of Washington in the growing US-China rivalry, with compliance necessary to secure Washington's favour.
Henke’s analysis highlights the challenges NATO faces as Europe adjusts to the evolving US administration and is featured in Süddeutsche Zeitung’s first issue of the new year, as part of the Platz der Republik dossier, which invites leading politicians and experts to reflect on the key questions shaping 2025. You can read the full issue here (in German).
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