Published in the International Studies Quarterly, former PhD student Alexander Sorg and Professor of International Affairs and Security Julian Wucherpfennig’s study challenges the prevailing assumption that foreign military deployments lead to free-riding by creating a sense of protection in the host nation.
U.S. military deployments have increased since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, criticism of these deployments within the United States has intensified, with former President Trump prominently embodying this critical stance. Consequently, these deployments are likely to remain a subject of public controversy in the foreseeable future. There remains however a significant lack of understanding surrounding the micro-mechanisms through which military deployments influence national defence policy.
Scholarship has predominantly argued that U.S. foreign military deployments play a crucial role in assuring allies that their security is guaranteed, prompting host states to lower their national defence contributions—a phenomenon known as "free-riding." However, Sorg and Wucherpfennig’s study critically examines this theory by focusing on the micro-foundations of how such deployments impact host state attitudes and policies.
Through two survey experiments, one examining withdrawals (in Germany) and one examining deployments (in Czechia), the researchers test whether U.S. foreign military deployments indeed enhance perceived security and reduce the perceived need for national defence. Their findings suggest a more nuanced reality:
- Perceived security increase: while deployments may somewhat decrease the subjective need for defence among citizens, the overall perception of security provided by these forces remains limited. In fact, survey results from Germany even indicate that the withdrawal of U.S. conventional and nuclear forces lowers citizens’ threat perceptions.
- Challenge to free-riding logic: the results cast doubt on the core assumption underlying the theory of free-riding in alliances, that is, that foreign military deployments lead to free-riding by creating a sense of protection or assurance, at least among the general population.
“Our findings suggest that the relationship between military deployments and host state policies is more complex than previously thought” Sorg and Wucherpfennig explain. “Host nations do not necessarily feel protected just because foreign troops are present, which challenges the traditional narrative of free-riding in alliances.”. The study encourages a re-evaluation of the theoretical assumptions underlying alliances and indicates that decision-makers should more carefully think about the effects of these deployments. Notably, there may be a disconnect between the perspectives of citizens and foreign policy elites. This disconnect can lead to public resentment, which, through democratic processes, may result in reduced investment towards national defence.
Read the full article here.
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