In a new commentary for ISPI, Mauro Gilli and colleagues argue that resources alone are not enough: Europe must also invest in its cognitive capacity to achieve true strategic autonomy.
Europe is rearming and defence budgets across the continent are rising at a pace unseen since the Cold War. The EU’s proposed 2028–34 budget allocates €131 billion to defence and space – nearly five times the current level. New initiatives on procurement, industrial co-operation, and readiness are multiplying.
Yet, in a commentary for ISPI Europe and Global Governance, drawing on their in-depth paper Strategic Readiness 2030: European Security Through Strategic Thinking for Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policymaking, Mauro Gilli (Professor of Military Strategy and Technology at the Hertie School), together with Andrea Gilli, Antonio Missiroli, and Niccolò Petrelli, warn that resources alone are not enough:
“More tanks, aeroplanes, soldiers and ammunition do not automatically translate into more security.”
Without a coherent framework to align ambitions with resources, Europe risks duplication, inefficiency, and waste.
Lessons from the United States and Europe’s intellectual gap
The authors highlight a stark contrast with the United States, which since 1945 has cultivated a robust strategic ecosystem spanning universities, think tanks, federally funded research centres, military institutions, and private companies. While this system has not prevented strategic failures (for example, Vietnam and Iraq), it has fostered a culture of adaptation and innovation unmatched elsewhere.
Europe, by comparison, remains “intellectually under-resourced”: strategic studies are fragmented, funding is small-scale and bureaucratically burdensome, applied defence analysis programmes are rare, and there is little exchange of knowledge and talent between academia, governments, and the armed forces. Without strengthening this intellectual foundation, Gilli and colleagues warn, Europe will remain dependent on American strategic guidance – regardless of how much it spends on defence.
Six measures to strengthen Europe’s cognitive capacity
For Europe to close this gap, the authors propose six measures:
- Embed strategic analysis in higher education by establishing Javier Solana Chairs and Jean Monnet–style university posts that promote substantive knowledge and practical training (for example, wargaming and simulations).
- Raise Europe’s “strategic IQ” through competitions and forecasting tournaments (similar to the US Good Judgment Project).
- Bridge research and policy by creating European International and Military Affairs Fellowships to embed scholars in the EU, NATO, and national ministries, and place military officers in European think tanks and universities.
- Fund excellence via a phased funding model with progressively larger awards based on quality and delivery, allowing more time for research rather than paperwork.
- Support multidisciplinary research teams that combine political, economic, and technical expertise.
- Guarantee intellectual independence through transparency, competition, and peer review.
Strategic autonomy requires brainpower
For Gilli and colleagues, Europe’s strategic autonomy depends as much on intellectual investment as on military spending:
“Money without strategy is waste, and capabilities without concepts are brittle. Europe does not only need more guns, resources, and manpower. It also needs more brainpower.”
Read the full commentary by Mauro Gilli, Andrea Gilli, Antonio Missiroli, and Niccolò Petrelli in ISPI Europe and Global Governance here.
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